It’s October, and we really should be focused only on November, but let’s take just a few minutes to think about the Madison Common Council elections next spring. The December 1st start of the filing period isn’t that far away, and the people who are serious about running are certainly thinking about it right now, but mostly staying quiet until after November. Here’s a quick rundown on where current Council members might shake out.
Let’s break the 20 incumbent Alders down into a five categories: Not running, Not expecting or at least not surprised if they’re not running, no idea either way, expect them to run again, would be shocked if they didn’t run again. My breakdown is staying very conservative, and I’m not writing about any rumors I’ve heard or in some cases, conversations I’ve had. I’m also not going to write about anyone specific I’ve heard is thinking about running, save for the one person who I’ve heard announce. Those rumors can wait until after the November election.
The “Not Running” category
Lisa Subeck, District 1. The primary was the only election that matters, so Subeck is moving on the State Assembly. There’s no legal requirement for her to stand down, but tradition has been that local office-holders finish out their term and then don’t run for reelection. So, Subeck moves on after two terms, to a seat in the Assembly that should be hers for as long as she wants (of course, that’s what we thought about Brett Hulsey in 2010.) I haven’t yet heard of anyone thinking about, much less committing, to run in 2015.
Scott Resnick, District 8. Resnick’s got a different job in mind, and so after four years of representing the predominately student district, he’s stepping down. It’s rare that anyone stays in that seat for more than two terms, so even if he wasn’t running for Mayor, I’d have expected him not to run for reelection. I know there are people committed to run for this seat in 2015.
Lucas Dailey, District 13. Dailey is serving out the last year of Sue Ellingson’s term, and pledged to run for reelection. There were something like a dozen people who applied for the seat last spring, of which eight ultimately were considered. Obviously, many of these folks will decide that campaigning for a few months in the dead of winter is more work, but I imagine this will be a lively race in 2015. Zach Madden is the first to get in (including an ill-advised fundraiser two weeks before the November election) but he won’t be the last.
The “Not expecting or at least not surprised if they’re not running” category:
Steve King, District 7. By April, King will have served six years on the Common Council, and I just don’t think King wants to do this anymore. It seems that every time I tune into the City Channel and happen to catch him during debate, he seems unhappy that he’s got to be there and can’t believe that the Council is still talking about whatever they’re talking about. He wasn’t at the Board of Estimates on Tuesday night. Maybe I just catch him at bad times, or he’s taking the approach of only speaking when he’s especially motivated by something for good or bad so there’s a selection bias in my observations, but Steve King calling it quits would be the least-surprising announcement I could imagine in December.
Lauren Cnare, District 3. Cnare was first elected in 2005, and was ready to walk away in 2013, but was drawn back in when there weren’t enough candidates forthcoming. I expect that she’s done a bit more recruiting work for this cycle, and will aim to actually step aside this April.
No idea either way: Candidates who I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t run again, or might well run again.
Matthew J. Phair, District 20. Phair’s a teacher with younger kids. Being an Alder is a huge time commitment, and it’s not always possible nor desirable to be flexible with teaching or kids. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him step down after four years.
Joseph R. Clausius, District 17. Clausius served 6 years on the Sun Prairie City Council 15 years before for running for the Madison Common, where he’ll have served 8 years come April. He took a bit of heat in the previous election over a development by CareNet, an anti-abortion org (which I think he more or less blundered into before he fully realized what they were about) but was reelected handily. don’t have a good sense from him if 8 years is enough for a second act, or if he’s got more to go.
Paul E. Skidmore, District 9. Skidmore’s the odd duck of the Council. He’s been on the council for now 14 years, and he likes being on the Parks Commission, he likes doing 911 stuff, but otherwise, I don’t think he’s terribly interested in the rest of the council business. He’s probably the least connected Alder to any sort of backing. He’s from the closest thing to a Republican district as Madison’s got, but I suspect a more forceful liberal could beat him if one challenged him. I’ve never really understood Skidmore so I have no idea what he’s thinking.
Larry Palm, District 12. Palm was redistricted into an essentially entirely new district in 2013, and fortunately for him, Satya-Rhodes Conway declined to run again and he avoided having to take on a popular incumbent. With eight years on the council and a new marriage, I wouldn’t be surprised if he says “I’ve won in two different parts of town” and steps down
Candidates I expect to run again:
Anita Weier, District 18. Weier is finishing up her second term, I think she’s enjoying it and I expect she’ll run again. She’s had a few big items proposed that went absolutely nowhere, so look for her to spend a little more time building partnerships with other Alders.
Michael E. Verveer, District 4. The Dean of the Council, he hasn’t had a real challenger in many, many years. I’d support him even in a regular cycle, but I think the next two years are critical with some of the downtown projects moving through the planning and approval process. I expect, and absolutely hope, that he’s going to run again. His experience is too valuable for the city to lose right now.
Marsha A. Rummel, District 6. A good friend recently described Rummel as “the perfect person for her district”, and that’s so very true. There’s really no one else on the council who is such a fit for their district, and Rummel can keep being reelected for as many times as she wants. At some point, a few folks in the district will start to grumble that leadership should change over from time to time to keep fresh ideas coming, but Rummel does the job as that district wants it done. Presuming that she’s able to run again, I hope that she does.
Shiva Bidar-Sielaff, District 5. The window on running for Mayor this cycle is starting to close, but she could still jump in if she wanted to run. But, if she decides against running for Mayor, if I’m her I’d think to myself “I’m the most often mentioned potential mayoral candidate. 2015 wasn’t right, but let’s keep options open.” There are a million ways she can keep her options open by being involved in the community but outside of the Council, and she’d be good at all of them, but staying on the Council seems like the most straightforward way to stay visible. It’s what I’m hoping she does.
Chris Schmidt, District 11. A two year stint as Council President is a bit unusual, and a ton of extra work. I suppose I could see him stepping down just to catch up on some sleep, but I hope and expect he stays on but steps back to just being a regular member with a regular workload.
Mark Clear, District 19. I was at Mark’s election night party, and certainly wasn’t going to ask him “Are you going to run again?” that night, and I don’t know how he might have answered, either. I expect now that he’s had nearly two months to reflect on it, he’ll realize that he’s both good at being an Alder and enjoys it, and runs again. Again, staying on the Council is a good way to keep his options open. I don’t expect that Subeck will have quite the same flame-out as Hulsey, so another shot at the Assembly in a few short years is probably not in the cards, but there are other places you can go, or you can just keep serving Madison on the Common Council.
I expect all five first-term Alders to run again, I don’t think we have any one-and-dones:
Ledell Zellers, District 2. Zellers has supported more developments than her opponents expected, and probably more than some of the supporters expected, so I think she’s probably safe from any attacks that might really stick. Johnson street is painful, but that’s hardly her fault, and it will (hopefully) be in the past. East Wash is booming – Constellation is open, Galaxie is breaking ground on 800 E Wash Northside, and active proposals like the Korb/Brink “Archipelago Village” on 900 E Wash, Starting Block on 800 E Wash, Madison Dairy site, and some potential projects like the Reynolds site, the Salvation Army site, and maybe another try at the hotel at the Pahl Tire site. Not all of these proposals will move forward anytime soon, but developers don’t have much to complain about. I don’t think she draws an opponent that can mount a serious campaign and will probably skate to reelection.
Denise DeMarb, District 16, Currently Council President Pro Tempore. She’s going to run again, and is a shoo-in for Council President. She didn’t draw an opponent last time (and her predecessor ran unopposed in her one term) so it’s not exactly a district clamoring for change. I doubt DeMarb draws an opponent this time, either.
Maurice S. Cheeks, District 10. Cheeks also drew no opponent last time, and likely won’t this time either. Cheeks is the front-runner for President Pro Tempore if he wants the gig.
John Strasser, District 14. I think he runs again. The stormcloud on his horizon is that for years, plenty of people talked about running against Tim Bruer but always decided against it because they thought Bruer would be too tough. Strasser proved that Bruer was beatable, but Strasser’s problem is now everyone who wouldn’t get into the race with Bruer on the ballot might not be quite so afraid. Of all the first-term Alders Strasser’s probably going to have to work the hardest to be reelected.
David Ahrens, District 15. Ahrens is going to keep running until either he or the Judge Doyle Square project is dead. Sure, he’s got other interests, but until all those for plans for TIF-funded parking ramps get tossed in the recycling bin, Ahrens will be on the ballot. Even if the project is removed from the budget, I’m pretty sure Ahrens will run for a second term.
