What do the latest campaign finance reports mean? Is Cieslewicz in trouble?
Soglin flexes his muscles, Cieslewicz . . . let the speculation begin! I saw these numbers and was kind of stunned. I imagined that it was much closer than that. But then, as I thought about it further, most people I talk to think Cieslewicz is running ahead and will win . . . but when you ask them who they are voting for . . . its “anyone but Dave” or “I can’t vote for Dave”.
Ok, I understand that Cieslewicz has been raising money longer and has more money in the bank, but that’s a huge difference in this last reporting period. You’d think if Cieslewicz has a bunch of supporters, they would have rallied during this reporting period due to Paul Soglin being a credible candidate. Unless they, like others, weren’t taking Paul seriously. Looks like maybe they should. I think Soglin was sold a little short early on, and now, the true threat to Cieslewicz is becoming clear. Well, actually, I think that Cieslewicz was his own threat when he abandoned the left and the open clean government values we embrace, and didn’t develop a new base. Much like Sue Bauman before him, he has no base, at least not much of one. But I digress . . .
Here’s the reports!
One former colleague asked me yesterday . . . what if Cieslewicz doesn’t make 51% in the primary, they answered their own question . . . “it’ll be over”. I don’t quite agree, its never over til its over . . . we live in interesting times . . . get out there and volunteer for who you think is best! Let’s see what happens! I’m betting on Mayor Paul.
Is the mayor in trouble?
Not at all. Soglin absolutely needs to raise a ton of money in the coming weeks. The mayor has been doing that for years.
Yes, you need money to run a campaign, but you also need people to vote for you . . . will all those people who gave Dave money in the past stand behind him? How many have switched to Paul? And why didn’t Dave do better in the last reporting period? That was . . heh, weak sauce. In the heat of a contested race, leading up to the primary, he should be raking in the dough.
Well… I am waiting for Soglin to say he’s not gonna do that $16M TIF.
I have not heard that yet…
I would love it if Soglin removed the $16m TIF for Edgewater. Is that a possibility?
I hear a lot of same things (Dave is going to win, but I’m not voting for him). I think that the numbers are even more remarkable given that I have heard of some people (and suspect many that business with the city) staying officially neutral just in case Cieslewicz wins so they don’t face retribution. The “politics is a sport” person inside of me wishes that Brandon had jumped into the Mayor’s race now.