I had a long and complicated piece mostly written on the race for the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor, but I’m going to go with a more off-the-cuff version.
I’m thinking about two things when I vote for an LG candidate: who will best help Tom Barrett be elected Governor, and if Tom Barrett doesn’t finish his term, who do I most want to be Governor? To me, the person who best balances those two questions is Spencer Coggs.
Before I begin, I want to say that I’m comfortable with Spencer, Tom Nelson, or Henry Sanders as the LG nominee, and didn’t decide until fairly late as for who I was going to vote for. I also want to make a non-endorsement endorsement in the 77th AD and say that any one of Hesselbein, Hulsey, Imes, or Wade are fine with me, too. They’re not on my ballot, but I’d be happy with any of them. I know that puts me in the minority of contributors to Forward Lookout, but let’s be honest: if we had a state legislature full of people with Brett Hulsey’s voting record (or Hesselbein’s, or Imes or Wade if they had a voting record) we’d have the most progressive state legislature in the country. Any of the four of them is going to be a reliable vote who isn’t going to screw us when we need them.
On to the race for Lieutenant Governor. No one, except for the LG candidate and their family, is actually going to vote for Governor because of the LG candidate on the ballot, so personality-wise it doesn’t really matter to me who wins. However, I think there’s something to the idea that a candidate can bring an organization to the election, and I think the relations that Spencer Coggs brings, after nearly 30 years in public service, far outpaces the other two candidates.
I think that Tom Nelson will be helpful in the Fox Valley, and he rates #2 on my turnout question, but I think Spencer’s turnout efforts will exceed Nelson’s. I have absolutely no scientific process to guide me here, this is just a gut feeling.
Henry Sanders has done a remarkable job of energizing student leaders on campuses to get on board with his campaign, and to engage the core of the DPW members. Most of this is due to Henry, who’s a good guy and really gets it, and some of this is due to Jason Stephany, who’s run a good campaign. (Stephany is one of the reasons Dave Cieslewicz is going to be hard for a challenger to beat this spring.) Sanders is going to have good results on college campuses, but that turn-out is going to be overall low and small percentage of the state-wide race. Come November, I think Feingold and Barrett are the real turn-out drivers for the audience that Sanders is engaging with now, and so I’ll take Coggs over Sanders for help in November.
The second question of who do I want to be Governor if something happens to Tom Barrett (good or bad, mind you. I’m not worried about Barrett’s health, I’m worried about Barrett winning in 2010 and again in 2014, and the 2016 Democratic nominee looking around for a VP. An folksy but gets stuff done Governor who’s great on the stump, and is known to be physically tough, from a swing state to boot – you’d better believe he’d be at least looked at. It’s a long way to go to 2016, and he’s got to win twice and do a decent job as Governor, but I think it’s a very real possibility. )
I’m actually not super-thrilled about any of the three candidates becoming Governor, at least right away. (My first choice is Kathleen Falk – she’s run a big organization and would know how to manage as Governor on day one if need be)
Alas, Kathleen is not on the ballot, but I’m not expecting anyone to take over on Day One. Of the three candidates, my first choice for someone to become Governor is Henry Sanders. He’s got some interesting things in his plans, and he’s made an effort to highlight important social justice issues as part of his campaign, and most importantly, I think he’s the most intellectually curious of the bunch. So long as Barrett has a better relationship with him than Doyle did with Lawton, I’m confident that Sanders would be ready to take over as Governor if something changed in a few years, but I don’t think he’s ready today. (But, again, he doesn’t have to be)
My edge to Sanders is very slight, though, and I think Spencer Coggs would be ready to take over as Governor sooner. If Barrett and Coggs can work well together, they can be a great team – Coggs has been in the legislature forever and should be able to keep relations smooth between the two branches – or at least give a heads up when something is about to piss the legislature off.
My edge to Sanders on the second question is not enough to make me choose him over Coggs, especially with all of the union endorsements that Coggs has picked up this cycle. AFT, WEAC, SEIU, Teamsters, TAA, a couple of AFSCMEs, and many more. Spencer has an overwhelming collection of union endorsements.
I have no idea who’s going to actually win tonight, and again I don’t really care. The polls tell us this is going to be a close election, and I think Coggs helps us the most, so he gets my vote.
